We’re not climate scientists. We’re snowboarders who run a store, and who can’t help but nerd out on weather maps and have a PhD in shredding. Because the question that keeps us all up at night is simple:

“Is this winter finally going to be the one?”

Here’s the most bullish scenario we can dream up for Winter 25/26 in the Alps. Call it hopeful, call it obsessive, but it’s based on real signals that could set the stage for a truly legendary season across Austria, Switzerland, France, and Italy.

La Niña on the horizon

NOAA and WMO are calling for a La Niña to develop by autumn 2025. That’s big news, because La Niña winters often twist the jet stream in ways that bring more blocking patterns, more cold snaps, and more snow chances for Europe.

It doesn’t guarantee anything, but if you want heavy snow, La Niña tilts the odds in our favor.

The Stratosphere: When the vortex breaks, Europe wins

If you’ve never heard of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), here’s the quick version: the polar vortex gets rattled, the jet stream wobbles, and Europe gets slammed with cold for weeks.

La Niña years make these events more likely. Picture it: January vortex split, high pressure over Greenland, and a storm conveyor belt pumping into the Alps. That’s the stuff dream seasons are made of.

North Atlantic heat maps: The tripole trick

A weird-looking sea-surface temperature pattern in the North Atlantic, known as the “tripole,” helps push the atmosphere into negative NAO mode. That’s the mode that blocks mild Atlantic air and lets cold, stormy patterns hit Europe.

If that pattern shows up in late autumn 2025, consider it another bullish domino falling into place.

Siberian snow in October: The nerd signal that works

This one sounds random, but it’s legit: fast-growing snow cover across Siberia in October has been linked to weaker polar vortex conditions later in the winter. More Siberian snow early = more chances of Arctic cold spilling into Europe later.

So yeah, we’ll be watching snow charts east of the Urals this fall.

Southern storm tracks = powder factories

Cold air alone doesn’t make powder days. You need storms — and the Alps get their heaviest dumps when Mediterranean lows spin up and hammer moisture north into the mountains. Blocked patterns often steer these storms straight at the southern Alps (think Dolomites, Ticino, southern Switzerland), while spillover can bless northern ranges too.

Add in atmospheric rivers occasionally feeding the storm train, and you’ve got multi-metre snow cycles on tap.

Solar curveball

We’re hitting solar maximum right now. Normally, that leans toward slightly milder, stormier patterns in northern Europe. But if despite that, the Alps still see blocking and cold, it means the other drivers (La Niña, SSW, North Atlantic patterns) are winning. That’s a bullish override.

Where the bull case hits hardest

Sure, climate warming eats into snow at valley level. Rain lines creep up every decade. But at 1,800–2,000 m and above, the ceiling for snowfall is still insane when the right weather drivers stack up.

That’s where the bull case really pays out:

• High-elevation resorts across the Alps — Chamonix, Verbier, Engelberg, St. Anton, Zermatt, Val d’Isère, Livigno, and beyond — all benefit.

• Compacted base depths: 3–4 m by February on the big mountains.

• Seasonal snowfall: 6–9 m possible on storm-favored slopes.

• Longevity: Deep coverage rolling well into late spring.

Our powder-bullish-dashboard checklist:

Here’s what we’ll be watching as winter approaches, if all these boxes hit we are good to go for a crazy winter:

• La Niña: Is it holding into December? Bullish.

• Polar vortex health: Weak or splitting? Jackpot.

• NAO phase: Negative = the Alps eat.

• Siberian snow: Fast October advance = bullish.

• Mediterranean lows: More frequent storm tracks = deep cycles.

TLDR

We’re not here to promise you an “epic winter.” Forecasting months out is messy. But we can say this: the ingredients for a huge Alpine season are on the table. La Niña, a shaky vortex, negative NAO, and juicy Med lows — stack just two or three of those, and Winter 25/26 could be the kind of season we’ll still be talking about years from now.

We’re hopeful. We’re ready. And we’re waxing our boards just in case.

Powder Board Picks

For those chasing fluff, here are some excellent snowboards that shine in deep snow:

• Korua Transition Finder Brushed Snowboard> – playful and nimble, great for powder turns with a surfy feel

• Burton Fish 3D Directional Flat Top Snowboard> – directional shape and rocker profile help it float naturally

• Bataleon Cameleon 2026 Snowboard> – versatile twin with float and pop for powder and freeride use

• Stranda Tree Surfer Snowboard> – a private-press, powder-lover’s board